Brazil's inflation remained well above the central bank's target range in its mid-July reading, official data showed on Friday, as policymakers gather next week for a meeting at which they are widely expected to hold interest rates at a two-decade high.

Inflation figures released last week in Brazil showed the country had pierced the target ceiling for the first time since the National Monetary Council changed early this year the way the accumulated increase is calculated.

Brazil central bank is likely to keep its base Selic interest rate on hold at 15.% on July 30, keeping its tightest monetary stance.

Brazil's central bank will hold its benchmark interest rate at a two-decade high of 15% on July 30, according to a unanimous Reuters poll, although economists said it could acknowledge some moderation of inflation expectations.

Brazil's central bank has an inflation target of 3%, plus or minus a margin of 1.5 percentage points, known as a "tolerance interval", which was exceeded for the ninth consecutive month.

Brazil central bank slashed their 2026 inflation projection for the first time in over two months, in what may be a positive sign for monetary authorities.

Brazil's economic growth will stay on track despite the imposition of U.S. tariffs, according to a Reuters poll of economists, but inflation appears at greater risk of worsening if trade negotiations flounder.

Official data to be published on Tuesday will likely show inflation ran at a 0.33% monthly rate and 5.40% in the 12 months to May, according to median estimates of 19 economists polled June 4-9.

Inflation ticked up to its highest level in months in June amid concerns about President Donald Trump ’s threats surrounding tariffs and his larger global trade war. At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story.

For example, during COVID-19, Brazil saw inflation jump from 1.88% per year in May 2020 to as high as 12.1% in April 2022, forcing an interest rate (Selic) from 2% from August 2020 to March 2021 ...